(00:00)
Welcome back. Mitch Argon here with CalNeva Realty. Looking forward to sharing some numbers with you on the Greater Reno-Tahoe real estate market. Let’s get started.
(00:20)
Like in prior videos, we like to start with the median price and what’s happening there. That’s the thing that people watch the most, I think. You can see here that of the markets that we’re tracking, the only market that had a median price high last month, in August of 2021 was Carson Valley, which was 11% higher than where it was the year prior.
(00:44)
Getting a lot of questions from my agents, getting a lot of questions from people I’m helping in the real estate market today about pricing and are we seeing prices change, are we’re going to see prices fall and so forth. So I wanted to go through and share with you a little bit of insight visually as to what we’ve seen and experienced over the last couple of years. So I pulled this chart out of the Greater Reno-Tahoe Real Estate Report that’s linked down below from the video. What I really wanted to showcase was this rapid price increase that we’ve all experienced during the COVID period, if you will, in particular the lockdown period.
(01:28)
This chart goes back two years; from August of 2021 back to August of 2019. You can look at the numbers if you want to. You can freeze the video and look at the numbers. What I really want to showcase is the fact that the markets were relatively flat. We were seeing modest price appreciation, probably about three to 5%. It was pretty modest in this period here with the dotted red lines around it. That’s from April of 2019, going into March of 2020. March of 2020, of course, is when we in the US first encountered the lockdown and the measures to combat the spread of the virus.
(02:06)
Shortly after March, once we got our heads cleared a little bit, and re-emerged from that, we started to see changes in a lot of our lives, but in the real estate markets specifically. If you look at any one of these lines, for example, the blue line is Reno as an example. You can see that it started to rise rather dramatically. It rises and falls as you’re going month to month. You can see there’s a pretty dramatic increase in the median price during this period here that I got shaded with the green border lines. And that’s fairly consistent for each of the markets in here that we’re looking at.
(02:40)
You’ll also notice that over here on the right, here we are in May of 2021 and going up through August of 2021 that this trend is beginning to show signs of flattening. You can see here for example, the Reno market has been flat at the median price high of 550,000 for the last four months straight. Some markets in here are still moving around a little bit more. You can see they’re rising and falling a bit. Reno, being the largest market in our region, is probably the best bellwether indicator as to what’s happening because the sample size is much, much larger.
(03:19)
We have seen the market’s moderating. We have seen less demand in the marketplace with people being priced out, people tired of having to compete for homes, things of that nature. We’ve seen inventory begin to come on the market as well as there’s been more vaccination and people are beginning to get on and move through with their lives, activities and plans. So those things combined is leading towards this moderation in the marketplace. I would expect that we could continue to see this. We could see some adjustments modestly up, perhaps modestly down, but based on the current supply and demand levels, the markets are going through this moderation period that you can see visually on this chart.
(04:03)
I hope this helps many of you to understand the markets pre-COVID. I don’t want to say that we’re post-COVID, but we’re beginning to see post-COVID real estate phenomenon with this moderation. This just shows it visually.
(04:21)
When I look at some other categories in the marketplace, the one I want to focus on here primarily is this month’s supply of inventory over on the right. What you’ll notice is that these numbers here from September of 2020, which we just took a look on the chart for pricing, and September of 2021, here you can see we’re pretty close to even. You can see that it’s pretty close to even. These numbers over here, the current month’s supply of inventory have come up quite a bit in the last four months or so. They were down in the 0.4, 0.5 months. In some cases, I think we were even down to one market as low as 0.3 months. Currently Sparks at the lowest of 0.7.
(05:03)
As these numbers climb, this month’s supply of inventory, what that basically means is that supply and demand is moving towards a balance or an equilibrium. It doesn’t mean that we’re in a buyer’s market right now. To be in a neutral market, these numbers would be in the four to six months range. So we’re still in a seller’s market. The market still does favor sellers in terms of negotiations and pricing, whatnot, but that is moderating and balancing out. And if that trend continues, we should expect to see these numbers slowly climb up and eventually reach into this neutral range because the markets haven’t been appreciating for nearly 10 years now, and it is time for them to moderate more than what we’ve seen certainly in the last year.
(05:52)
So quick snapshot for you. I hope that’s helpful. If you have any questions regarding real estate, please feel free to reach out down below in the comments. If you’ve got an email from the video, reply to the email to me. If you’re working with one of our agents, we’ll certainly get that routed to the agent and our group to help you and advise you further on what you’re looking at doing. Until next month, have a great day, and thank you for watching. Signing off.
